Source: www.stratfor.com.
By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
Related Special Topic Page
Last week, the Mexican government carried out a number of operations
in Reynosa, Tamaulipas, aimed at Jaime “El Hummer” Gonzalez Duran, one
of the original members of the brutal cartel group known as Los Zetas. According to Mexican government officials, Gonzalez Duran controlled the Zetas’ operations in nine Mexican states.
The Nov. 7 arrest of Gonzalez Duran was a major victory for the
Mexican government and will undoubtedly be a major blow to the Zetas.
Taking Gonzalez Duran off the streets, however, is not the only aspect
of these operations with greater implications. The day before Gonzalez
Duran’s arrest, Mexican officials searching for him raided a safe
house, where they discovered an arms cache that would turn out to be the largest weapons seizure in Mexican history. This is no small feat, as there have been several large hauls of weapons seized from the Zetas and other Mexican cartel groups in recent years.
The weapons seized at the Gonzalez Duran safe house included more
than 500 firearms, a half-million rounds of ammunition and 150
grenades. The cache also included a LAW rocket, two grenade launchers
and a small amount of explosives. Along with the scores of assorted
assault rifles, grenades and a handful of gaudy gold-plated pistols
were some weapons that require a bit more examination: namely, the 14
Fabrique Nationale (FN) P90 personal defense weapons and the seven
Barrett .50-caliber sniper rifles contained in the seizure.
Matapolicias
As previously noted, the FN Five-Seven pistol and FN P90 personal defense weapon
are very popular with the various cartel enforcer groups operating in
Mexico. The Five-Seven and the P90 shoot a 5.7 mm-by-28 mm round that
has been shown to be effective in penetrating body armor as well as
vehicle doors and windows. Because of this ability to punch through
body armor, cartel enforcers call the weapons “matapolicias,” Spanish
for “cop killers.” Of course, AK-47 and M-16-style assault rifles are
also effective at penetrating body armor and vehicles, as are
large-caliber hunting rifles such as the 30.06 and the .308. But the
advantage of the Five-Seven and the P90 is that they provide this
penetration capability in a much smaller — and thus far more
concealable — package.
The P90 is a personal defense weapon designed to be carried by tank
crew members or combat support personnel who require a compact weapon
capable of penetrating body armor. It is considered impractical for
such soldiers to be issued full-size infantry rifles or even assault
rifles, so traditionally these troops were issued pistols and
submachine guns. The proliferation of body armor on the modern
battlefield, however, has rendered many pistols and submachine guns
that fire pistol ammunition ineffective. Because of this, support
troops needed a small weapon that could protect them from armored
troops; the P90 fits this bill.
In fact, the P90 lends itself to anyone who needs powerful,
concealable weapons. Protective security details, some police officers
and some special operations forces operators thus have begun using the
P90 and other personal defense weapons. The P90’s power and ability to
be concealed also make it an ideal weapon for cartel enforcers intent
on conducting assassinations in an urban environment — especially those
stalking targets wearing body armor.
The Five-Seven, which is even smaller than the P90, fires the same
fast, penetrating cartridge. Indeed, cartel hit men have killed several
Mexican police officers with these weapons in recent months. However,
guns that fire the 5.7 mm-by-28 mm cartridge are certainly not the only
type of weapons used in attacks against police — Mexican cops have been killed by many other types of weapons.
Reach Out and Touch Someone
While the P90 and Five-Seven are small and light, and use a small,
fast round to penetrate armor, the .50-caliber cartridge fired by a
Barrett sniper rifle is the polar opposite: It fires a huge chunk of
lead. By way of comparison, the 5.7 mm-by-28 mm cartridge is just a
little more than 1.5 inches long and has a 32-grain bullet. The
.50-caliber Browning Machine Gun (BMG) cartridge is actually 12.7 mm by
99 mm, measures nearly 5.5 inches long and fires a 661-grain bullet.
The P90 has a maximum effective range of 150 meters (about 165 yards),
whereas a Barrett’s listed maximum effective range is 1,850 meters
(about 2,020 yards) — and there are reports of coalition forces snipers
in Afghanistan scoring kills at more than 2,000 meters (about 2,190
yards).
The .50-BMG round not only will punch through body armor and normal
passenger vehicles, it can defeat the steel plate armor and the
laminated ballistic glass and polycarbonate windows used in lightly
armored vehicles. This is yet another reminder that there is no such thing as a bulletproof car. The round is also capable of penetrating many brick and concrete block walls.
We have heard reports for years of cartels seeking .50-caliber
sniper rifles made by Barrett and other U.S. manufacturers.
Additionally, we have noted many reports of seizures from arms
smugglers in the United States of these weapons bound for Mexico, or of
the weapons being found in Mexican cartel safe houses — such as the
seven rifles seized in Reynosa. Unlike the P90s, however, we cannot
recall even one instance of these powerful weapons being used in an
attack against another cartel or against a Mexican government target.
This is in marked contrast to Ireland, where the Irish Republican Army
used .50-caliber Barrett rifles obtained from the United States in many
sniper attacks against British troops and the Royal Ulster Constabulary.
That Mexican cartels have not used these devastating weapons is
surprising. There are in fact very few weapons in the arsenals of
cartel enforcers that we have not seen used, including hand grenades,
40 mm grenades, LAW rockets and rocket-propelled grenades. Even though
most intercartel warfare has occurred inside densely populated Mexican
cities such as Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez and Nuevo Laredo — places where
it would be very difficult to find a place to take a shot longer than a
few hundred meters, much less a couple thousand — the power of the
Barrett could be very effective for taking out targets wearing body
armor, riding in armored vehicles, located inside the safe house of a
rival cartel or even inside a government building. Also, unlike improvised explosive devices, which the cartels have avoided using for t
he most part, the use of .50-caliber rifles would not involve a high probability of collateral damage.
This indicates that the reason the cartels have not used these weapons is to be found in the nature of snipers and sniping.
Snipers
Most military and police snipers are highly trained and very
self-disciplined. Being a sniper requires an incredible amount of
practice, patience and preparation. Aside from rigorous training in
marksmanship, the sniper must also be trained in camouflage,
concealment and movement. Snipers are often forced to lie immobile for
hours on end. Additional training is required for snipers operating in
urban environments, which offer their own set of challenges to the
sniper; though historically, as seen in battles like Stalingrad, urban
snipers can be incredibly effective.
Snipers commonly deploy as part of a team of two, comprising a
shooter and a spotter. This means two very self-disciplined individuals
must be located and trained. The team must practice together and learn
how to accurately estimate distances, wind speed, terrain elevation and
other variables that can affect a bullet’s trajectory. An incredible
amount of attention to detail is required for a sniper team to get into
position and for their shots to travel several hundred meters and
accurately, consistently strike a small target.
In spite of media hype and popular fiction, criminals or terrorists
commit very few true sniper attacks. For example, many of our sniper
friends were very upset that the media chose to label the string of
murders committed by John Mohammed and Lee Boyd Malvo
as the “D.C. Sniper Case.” While Mohammed and Malvo did use
concealment, they commonly shot at targets between 50 and 100 meters
(about 55 yards to 110 yards) away. Therefore, calling Mohammed and
Malvo snipers was a serious insult to the genuine article. The
assassinations of President John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr.,
as well as the killing of Dr. Bernard Slepian, also have been dubbed
sniper attacks, but they actually were all shootings committed at
distances of less than 100 meters.
Of course, using a Barrett at short ranges (100 meters or less) is
still incredibly effective and does not require a highly trained sniper
— as a group of Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives
special agents found out in 1993 when they attempted to serve search
and arrest warrants at the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas. The
agents were met with .50-caliber sniper fire that ripped gaping holes
through the Chevrolet Suburbans they sought cover behind. Many of the
agents wounded in that incident were hit by the shrapnel created as the
.50-caliber rounds punched through their vehicles.
While it is extremely powerful, the Barrett is however a long, heavy
weapon. If the sniper lacks training in urban warfare, it might prove
very difficult to move around with the gun and also to find a concealed
place to employ it. This may partially explain why the Mexican cartels
have not used the weapons more.
Moreover, while the Zetas originally comprised deserters from the
Mexican military and over the years have shown an ability to conduct
assaults and ambushes, we have not traditionally seen them deploy as
snipers. Today, most of the original Zetas are now in upper management,
and no longer serve as foot soldiers.
The newer men brought into the Zetas include some former military
and police officers along with some young gangster types; most of them
lack the level of training possessed by the original Zetas. While the
Zetas have also brought on a number of former Kaibiles, Guatemalan special operations forces personnel,
most of them appear to be assigned as bodyguards for senior Zetas. This
may mean we are not seeing the cartels employ snipers because their
rank-and-file enforcers do not possess the discipline or training to
function as snipers.
Potential Problems
Of course, criminal syndicates in possession of these weapons still
pose a large potential threat to U.S. law enforcement officers,
especially when the weapons are in the hands of people like Gonzalez
Duran and his henchmen. According to an FBI intelligence memo dated
Oct. 17 and leaked to the media, Gonzalez Duran appeared to have gotten
wind of the planned operation against him. He reportedly had authorized
those under his command to defend their turf at any cost, to include
engagements with U.S. law enforcement agents. It is important to
remember that a chunk of that turf was adjacent to the U.S. border and
American towns, and that Reynosa — where Gonzalez Duran was arrested
and the weapons were seized — is just across the border from McAllen,
Texas.
Armed with small, powerful weapons like the P90, cartel gunmen can
pose a tremendous threat to any law enforcement officer who encounters
them in a traffic stop or drug raid. Over the past several years, we
have noted several instances of U.S. Border Patrol agents and other
U.S. law enforcement officers being shot at from Mexico. The thought of
being targeted by a weapon with the range and power of a .50-caliber
sniper rifle would almost certainly send chills up the spine of any
Border Patrol agent or sheriff’s deputy working along the border.
Armed with assault rifles, hand grenades and .50-caliber sniper
rifles, cartel enforcers have the potential to wreak havoc and outgun
U.S. law enforcement officers. The only saving grace for U.S. law
enforcement is that many cartel enforcers are often impaired by drugs
or alcohol and tend to be impetuous and reckless. While the cartel
gunmen are better trained than most Mexican authorities, their training
does not stack up to that of most U.S. law enforcement officers. This
was illustrated by an incident on Nov. 6 in Austin, Texas, when a
police officer used his service pistol to kill a cartel gunman who
fired on the officer with an AK-47.
While the arrest of Gonzalez Duran and the seizure of the huge arms
cache in Reynosa have taken some killers and weapons off the street,
they are only one small drop in the bucket. There are many heavily
armed cartel enforcers still at large in Mexico, and the violence is
spreading over the border into the United States. Law enforcement
officers in the United States therefore need to maintain a keen awareness of the threat.
Barack Obama is being given ominous advice from leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to brace himself for an early assault from terrorists.
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